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Research interests

The research conducted and led by Dr. Siegel has centered around the systems engineering problem of developing large, complex (both technically and socially) societal systems.  He has been the actual lead-designer &/or program manager for several such systems, has drawn lessons-learned from those experiences, has used the large volume of actual programmatic metrics available from those experiences to design research programs to create new insights into the root-cause of such failures, and created (and validated through his research programs) a set of novel techniques intended to provide better outcomes for such large system development programs.

This has led to the creation of design patterns and design guidelines for such systems, methodological guidance, metrics for assessing the adequacy of a design, and guidance for how best to assign people to tasks on such teams.  This research has been validated through its application to real development programs, with striking and significant positive results.  He has identified novel root-causes of system-development failures, new methods to correct those root-causes.  He has developed techniques intended to improve development outcomes on projects to create large-scale societal systems that contain significant amounts of software; application of these techniques to real system development effort have resulted in outcomes far better than average.

He has performed extensive research analyzing the life-cycle of complex systems, aimed at understanding problems found in the life-cycle, and creating improved methods for the development of such systems. The following summarizes some of the key aspects of this research:

  1. Understanding the role of unplanned, adverse dynamic behavior in large, complex systems. The literature demonstrated that a large portion of system-development projects fail, and generally assigns responsibility for these failures to practice of changing the requirements, even after development has commenced.  His research produced evidence that this is often not correct.  His research has developed data, validated through extensive observational case studies, that pointed to a different source for the majority of these failures.  Root-cause analysis supported these conclusions.
  2. Methodologies for designing effective large-scale systems. Based on the insight concerning dynamic behavior in complex systems, he has conducted researched aimed at creating methods for avoiding such failures for certain types of systems.  These methods were then applied to a number of real, large-scale system development efforts, and the results of those development efforts were quantitatively analyzed.
  3. Methodologies and techniques for wireless, mobile communications networks. Specific topics include identifying and overcoming issues involved in adapted protocols designed for wireline operation to various wireless configurations; network management in mobile, ad hoc, networks (which I call “infrastructureless networks”‘; in these networks, routing decisions cannot be based, as they are in the internet, on cached data); and remote security administration.
  4. Methodologies for engineering project management.  He has for many years engaged in a two-part activity in engineering project management: performing research on methods and techniques, and then applying the methodological improvements that resulted from that research to real projects while gathering data about their efficacy . . . and then repeating the cycle.

He has worked in several engineering application domains within industrial and systems engineering, both applying the results of my research into the life-cycle of complex system (these became a source of data to that research), but also research into the problems and issues of specific engineering applications. The following summarizes some of the key aspects of this research:

  1. Healthcare.  He has used systems engineering methods to analyze the operations of portions of the healthcare industry, and created two principal initiatives for improvements.  One has been extensively implemented; literally, tens of thousands of lives are saved every year.  The other is still in progress.
  2. Wireless networks and connectivity. He led a large team that conducted research into the problems of mobile wireless networks, and in transitioning the internet from wired operation (the original internet operated only over phone lines, and later, over special data cables) to wireless operation.  This team created – as memorialized in a series of issued patents – the first complete implementation of a wireless internet.   Billions of consumer devices employ techniques that arose from this research.
  3. Government systems. In the course of being tasked to create many types of large, complex systems for the government (military, civil, police, ambulance, and so forth), he has conducted research that led to break-through capabilities in many of these engineering application domains.  For example,  he has been a pioneer in large-scale deployments of GPS-enabled applications (like the military Blue-Force Tracking system).
  4. Security for mobile systems. In the course of creating the world’s first wireless internet (see above), teams that he led recognized the existence of a variety of security issues that arose solely because of the wireless and mobile nature of the system.  These include the problem of locating a remote device which we believe may be lost, stolen, or in the hands of an adversary; performing a remote lock function on such devices; and performing a remote erase on such devices.  Billions of consumer devices employ techniques that arose from this research.
  5. Using artificial intelligence to perform fraud detection in public-payer systems. He led teams that performed research into methods to lessen the severe problem of fraudulent claims against public-payer systems, such as MEDICARE and Social Security.  Government estimates are the up to 40% of the dollar value of claims for some of these payment streams are fraudulent.  There were, however, severe operational constraints that prevented many previous attempts at automated fraud detection from being adopted.  This team created techniques that used artificial intelligence methods to perform relatively effective fraud detection while working within those same operational constraints.  Very large amounts of U.S. government funds are saved every year.
  6. Support to decision-makers:  He led teams that have built systems that support decisions by important decision-makers, military, police, medical, civil government, and other settings.  A particular area of personal emphasis has been the matter of deciding which portions of the process can be completely automated (e.g., decision-making and subsequent action by the computer, using AI techniques) versus providing information to aid human decision-makers.
  7. Information security in large, complex, dynamic networks. Many of the now-widespread techniques for remote security administration in large, complex dynamic networks were invented by him and teams that he led.  These techniques are now used in billions of devices around the world.
  8. Entertainment. A team that he led researched the problem of how to transition the movie business from distribution to theaters on film to distribution via secure electronic means; the results of this research were then implemented in real systems.    About 97% of the 35,000 movie screens in the United States employ techniques that arose from this research.
  9. Logistics automation. Teams that he led pioneered the use of low-cost sensors on military ground vehicles to make prognostics and diagnostics about vehicle and system health, and to automate fully the necessary coordinated maintenance actions.  Sensors would report failures (or predict failures), parts would automatically be ordered and moved to a supply / repair point, maintenance personnel would be ordered to a supply point, and when the affected vehicle came in for fuel, food, and ammunition, the repair action could be undertaken.  The personnel on the vehicle did not need to perform any manual diagnosis, call for support, or repair.
  10. User interface.  He led research teams that pioneered new and improved ways for humans to interact with computers.  For example, the automatic orientation of a computer display on the handheld device, in response to movement of that device, so that the display remains oriented to the cardinal points, or in some other user-selected fashion.  Also, free-space gesture recognition by a computer without any gloves or similar devices.  These techniques are now used in billions of devices around the world.

Current work in the healthcare domain focuses on processing large volumes of proteomic and other sensor data to develop diagnoses.  Current work in the electric power domain focuses on using systems engineering methods to design effective methods to recover from large-scale “Black Sky” power disruptions.